Wednesday, December 24, 2008

2008 HAPPY HOLIDAYS!

Just wanted to say Happy Holidays to everyone! Thanks for stopping by the blog this past year. The markets have generated a ton of oppotunities this year and hopefully you've made some money or at least learned some things along the way. If not, the new year is upon us so don't let any past mistakes bog you down. One of the worst things you can do in trading is dwell on a bad trade or missed opportunity. Learn from it and ensure that you don't repeat it.

If the past two days are any indication of the trading set-ups available until January 5, I'd rather sleep in and spend time with family and friends. Enjoy the holidays, stay warm and get some rest for the new year!

Monday, December 22, 2008

12/22 Daytrades

While I generally don't trust these low volume days for swings, the moves tend to be exaggerated which is good for daytrading. I started out using 5-min charts but switched to 15-min charts for entries and back to 5-min charts for exits.

SKF - I used the 113 level established early in the morning for entry and just trailed the stop using the moving averages and 5-min bars. I commented in one of the chat boards that the last hour is too volatile for the inverse ETFs and sure enough it was. I'm glad I exited a bit early.


SRS - I started the day on 5-min charts but got a false break-out early on.



I then switched to the 15-min chart and waited until it line up and crossed the moving averages before re-entering. Again, the last hour was a crazy so I'm glad to have exited a bit early.


GOOG - This was a slow mover but set up a very nice inverse holy grail off the moving averages. I liked the fact that there was a very narrow range to determine a stop level. I went with Jan 380 puts and managed about 5 points later in the day.





Friday, December 19, 2008

12/19 Daytrades

6:55AM - Bought some RIMM Dec 40's @ 1.20, bouncing off 5-SMA

7:30AM - Stopped out for $0.20 gain

8:00AM - Bought some SKF Dec 100 Calls @ 8.39, stop @ 107.00

9:05AM - Taking profits, sold SKF Calls @ 12.00

12:10PM - Bought SKF Dec 105 Calls @ 6.90

12:25PM - Stopped out of SKF @ 6.00

Thursday, December 18, 2008

12/12 - 12/18 Day/Swingtrades...none

I've been on the road all week and haven't been trading. I dumped half my POT puts last Friday at the open for a double. I held the other half for a few more hours but POT was just too strong as the market climbed back so I closed out the 2nd half at break-even.

I'll try to post real-time trades tomorrow if I see any decent set-ups. As with other options expiration days, I'll be using at-the-money options on the usual, volatile suspects to take advantage of the minimal premiums.

Friday, December 12, 2008

12/9-12/11 Day/swingtrades

C - I sold the remaining shares @ 8.45 as C and the financials started to act week yesterday amongst the market strength


PCX - After seeing this break9.00+ a few times, I decided to close the position this morning for $0.75 on the Dec 7.5 Calls as the momentum appeared to be fading.


POT - I shorted this yesterday at 68.80 as it formed a double-top and took profits at 67.00.



POT actually printed a reversal hammer as it bounced off the 20-SMA on the 15-min charts.



POT - This has moved quite a bit from the low 50's last week. However, the 20-SMA still shows a downward trend. I took a low-risk short position with Dec 65 Puts yesterday around $69+ and added some more above $70 today. I'm going to take partial profits if it trades back down to $60 and trail the rest in case it retests the recent bottom in the low 50's.






Monday, December 8, 2008

12/8 Day/Swingtrades

In contrast to Friday, I didn't feel like chasing stocks after the opening gap. I went searching for low-risk stocks setting up a base. I picked up some BIDU mid-morning and got stopped out awhile later for $1 loss.

C - this set up a nice narrow range as the market consolidated the opening gap. I liken this to doubling down on blackjack. The narrow range allows me to increase the position size while maintaining the same risk. I sold half as the market began to stall out and carried the other half overnight.



PCX - Coal stocks performed very well today so I picked up some Dec 7.5 Calls as it appears PCX may be coming off a double-bottom.



Sunday, December 7, 2008

12/4-12/5 Day/Swingtrades

I was hoping to get in on some short positions on Thursday ahead of the jobs report but got stopped out of SKF a couple times for $1 loss each and couldn't find a comfortable entry on the late day spike. I ended up in cash going into Friday.

On Friday, the early morning dip lost steam and it just feels like the bears are exhausted at this point. As the market decline stalled out, there were a lot of decent setups for long entries. I caught a decent move in AAPL and picked up a couple bucks in BIDU.

Next week will probably be similar to the past month with a long-bias. In this environment, technicals and fundamentals don't carry too much weight. I'll stay nimble and take profits quickly. If we get a rebound in energy, it may be good for a couple days as the sector has been obliterated. Check out the metals (X, NUE, etc.), many are starting to cross above the moving averages. On the financial front, C held has held up very well since bottoming a couple weeks ago so I'll be looking to go long again above $8.20+. JPM and WFC also look like decent long candidates.

In the long run, I think this is still just a bear rally. The fundamentals of the economy are still horrible and I haven't heard any plans that may pose a decent solution to the economic mess. If/when we turn back down, the inverse ETFs are still the way to go.

C - Thursday, I used the morning strength to unload my remaining C Dec 7.5 Calls. I made some decent coin on the first run-up to $8.40 from $6.80 but C hasn't moved much since and I didn't want too much exposure ahead of the job numbers. I'm going to use $8.20 as the next re-entry level if this rally has more momentum to it. C actually held up pretty well the past 3 days.






AAPL - I mentioned in one of the chat rooms that SKF/SRS did not look very strong when the Dow was down 200+points on Friday morning. I didn't want to chase any shorts so decided to look for low-risk long set-ups. AAPL based pretty well at the 89-90 level so I picked up Dec 60 Calls as AAPL crossed above the moving averages. I sold out aorund $92.50 as it stalled and re-entered a short while later to pick up another point. All told, a bit over $3+ on the calls.




BIDU - this was the same set-up as with AAPL above. I did a quick scan for stocks setting up a base with an easy stop-level. I picked up BIDU shares as the market started to rebound and closed it out a bit later for $2.00 profit. This normally would have been more but BIDU has been clobbered lately so I guess buyers weren't too eager to jump back in on this one.


Thursday, December 4, 2008

12/3 Day/Swingtrades

Just a quick note, I'm still swinging those C calls. I've been too busy this week to monitor the markets so I'm going to put in a trailing stop in the AM. I'm going look for a decent setup to go short via some puts tomorrow ahead of the employment numbers on Friday.

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

12/2 Day/Swingtrades

These wild days are becoming the norm as the market is having trouble shaking off the selling pressure. The fundamentals are still horrible so keep those trades on a short leash.

No trades for me today as I was busy with work. I'm still carrying those C Dec 7.5 Calls. Looking at the intraday charts, the inverse ETFs are still providing some great daytrading set-ups. Easy with hindsight but I've highlighted some very low-risk spots that caught my eye using narrow ranges and moving averages:


Monday, December 1, 2008

12/1 Day/Swingtrades

That last hour of the trading day continues to be a daytrader's dream if you're positioned correctly.





FNM - With the market weakness, I unloaded all the FNM I had bought last week @ 1.19 when the stock closed the opening gap.


C - I wasn't as fortunate with C as it traded down from the opening bell. I'm fighting the tape here a bit as I'm still holding on. It's all time premium on the Dec 7.5 Calls so I don't expect them to go to zero anytime soon. I'll unload on the next rally.


SRS/GS - My timing was off today. I picked up SRS a bit too early @ 142.00 and was stopped out for $0.70 loss as the market tried to rally. I then switched over to GS only to get stopped out for $0.50 loss as the market cratered. I should have re-entered as the set-up on SRS looked even better but I had to head out to a meeting.

Sunday, November 30, 2008

Charts - Energy/Energy Services

Gas finally broke below the $2 mark in my area! I've got a 30-gallon guzzler so it's nice to see sub-$60 fill-ups. That said, the charts in the energy and energy services sectors are starting to show some strength. I hope oil keeps falling apart but I'll be keeping an eye on the following stocks if they continue to rebound:







Friday, November 28, 2008

11/28 Day/Swingtrades

Another low volume run-up for the bulls. I should have slept in but decided to wake up just to babysit my positions. My swing positions closed the day pretty well. With these low-volume gains, I won't be surprised to see a gap open on Monday if the institutions try to suck in the longs. I'll use that opportunity to close out these positions if it starts to fade. Many stocks are closing at the 20-SMA on the daily so we may need a rest to consolidate the gains this past week. Time to go hunting for holiday bargains!

C - I'm glad I went with C instead of UYG the other day. C tacked on some more nice gains. I sold some of the Nov 7.5 Calls for a double on the options.


FNM - This baby just keeps chugging along. I normally don't think in percentage gains but with penny stocks like FNM, I'm taking large, concentrated bets based on a % of my portfolio so I have to view my return based on the initial capital traded. FNM has gained over 300% (from $0.31) since last Friday and when it hit 100% for me this AM, I took some off the table @ 0.95. Just as a reminder, I also have a smaller longer-term position that I started a month ago (yeah, too soon) with an average cost of $1.20. I stopped adding to that position when FNM broke below $1.00. Fortunately, with the size I purchased on Monday, I'm well in the black overall. The key for me was not to let the past position hold me back from trading the set-up I saw on Tuesday.

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

11/26 Day/swingtrades

Another nice day for the bulls. Despite the low volume and volatility, I tend to like these days. If you're on the right side of the trade, you can catch some pretty decent moves. The key is not to make any predictions and just go with the trend. Otherwise, the whipsaw action can be frustrating. Have a safe and happy Thanksgiving!

C - After the pounding the past couple weeks, C showed some decent strength during the early morning weakness. I picked up shares around 6.80 and rolled the position to Dec 7.50 calls when it reached 7.20.



POT - I got a late start on POT but picked up some shares as energy/basic materials started showing strength. I closed the position as it formed a potential double-top on the 5-min chart.



RIMM - After yesterday's weakness, RIMM showed some strength this morning. I wish I had held yesterday's position but didn't want to sit on the sidelines and reminisce. I opened up a position as it broke the 42.50 area and sold half after some decent gains and closed the position as the markets started to fade around 10AM. Luckily, this turned out to be the top of the day.





FNM - this got a nice little boost in the AM. I bought yesterday @ $0.50 and pyramid more shares @ $0.70.

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

11/25 Day/Swingtrades

That was a very choppy session. However, it was not surprising given the run-up the past few days. As I mentioned yesterday, I was looking to exit positions on any opening strength and the 1st hour played out perfectly. After that, I couldn't find many decent set-ups throughout the day.

UYG - I closed out the position once the early morning strength began to fade. It is still trading above the 5, 15 and 30-min moving averages so I'll keep it on the radar in case we continue to rally.


RIMM - The chart is an intraday close-up with 5-min bars. RIMM was weak from the open but found some solid support as it based around 40.50-41.00. I took a low-risk entry at 41.11 once it traded back above the moving averages and sold at 41.60 late in the day...pocket change.


CME - I didn't like the way the market was holding the gap open so I closed out yesterday's CME position when it couldn't break through $212+ on the second try. $22.00 profit.


FNM - I also picked up some FNM. The daily shows a potential double-bottom.


Monday, November 24, 2008

11/24 Day/Swingtrades

What goes down must come up...I guess. That was another monster rally today. You could sense the shorts were panicking. Too bad it is the start of a new month. All the option premiums are sky-high. I knew SRS/SKF were going down hard but stayed away from them because I didn't want to tie up too much capital shorting them. Puts were just out of the question given the premiums. We've now bounced over 1000 points on the Dow from Friday's lows. I'll play a momentum push at the open and will probably go back to cash to let things settle down. This is a low-volume week and anything can happen...especially Friday.

In addition to the trades below, I got stopped out of OIH a couple times for $0.40 loss each time. The chart and my entry/exits are boring so I'm not posting it.

ICE - This definitely got away from me. ICE tends to rebound hard on market rallies. I thought I got a decent/early entry @ 61.19. ICE rallied to 63.00 (the opening range high, that's why I tend to use this level on early morning rallies) and fell back. I moved my $1.00 stop up too soon and was taken out for $0.19 loss. I was too busy to re-enter later on.


CME - Again, similar to ICE, CME tends to move big on the rebounds. This was a much riskier trade so my position-size was 25% of the norm. The best entry would have been around 174 but I was late and just banking on momenutum, ready to bail if the 5-min bar low could not hold. I picked up shares @ 188 and held them all day and finally got the push into the close.



UYG - With the strength in financials, I had to get in on UYG. The tight, narrow range at the open was easy to determine a stop level. I picked up shares @ $4.55 and sold half at the close when I noticed GS and other financials start to fade.





MS - I picked up some shares as the opening range high was taken out around $11.50. There was a nice narrow range (less than $0.50) so I was able to position-size accordingly. I took partial profits to lock in $1.00 and sold the rest as a double-top formed around $13.50 prior to the close.




Friday, November 21, 2008

11/19 - 11/21 Day/swingtrades

Wow, the last 2 hours of today were amazing! Options expiration, market rallying, inverse ETFs overbought...what more can you ask for. I felt like I missed some great opportunities the past couple weeks due to work. I'd pull up the charts in between meetings and late at night to see the amazing intraday volatility. I resigned to just sitting on the sidelines and not chasing anything the past few days. Well, after sitting on the sidelines since Tuesday morning, I finally got a reprieve as a late scheduled meeting concluded early. That left me with 1.5 hours before the market closed and plenty of time to get to the airport...and place a few trades along the way.


SKF - I did a quick scan of a few charts and noticed a potential double-top on SKF and SRS. I picked up some SKF Nov 280 Puts for $2.00 with the stock at $295. I placed an order to sell at the market at the close and headed for the airport. 30 minutes later I stopped off for lunch and checked the quotes to see SKF @ $270. Unfortunately, I checked my sell order and it was cancelled by the broker (something about a market sell at the close on options on expiration day, I'll check Monday). So, I placed a limit sell @ $12.00 and it was triggered 5 minutes later for $10.00 profit. Well, I took my laptop to lunch and decided the Nov 260 were looking waaaaay too cheap @ $0.70 and with the market rallying/short covering. So, on the SKF bounce back above $270, I plowed some profits back into the Nov 260 Puts @ $0.70. I dumped those 10 minutes later for another $10.00 profit. It would have been nice to hold everything right into the close but I haven't been able to keep up with the intraday market action so my trading emotions have been out-of-sync for a couple weeks.







RIMM - I dumped the rest of my options for $3.00 profit on Tuesday morning. The market was down close to 100 points as RIMM rallied to $48+ so I moved up my stop and luckily, it triggered near the highs of the day before the market fell apart.




Sunday, November 16, 2008

11/8 - 11/18 Day/swingtrades

I've had a very hard time trading part-time last week and this week. It was pretty much impossible to trade on any time frame other than 1 and 5-min charts. I did catch a little bit of the bounce on Thursday afternoon and went back to cash on Friday morning. The only set-up that works for my current schedule is catching the lows/highs of a channel. I need to be in a position to let a daytrade turn to a swingtrade if I have to leave the monitor. The only position I'm currently carrying is RIMM. It showed a lot of strength during yesterday's weakness. There was support at 40 which was the previous low on the daily on 10/26. I picked up Nov 45 Calls with the stock @ 42.00. I sold half today @ 45.20 and will probably get stopped out of the other half given these 1-day trends lately.


BTW, just a follow-up on my views of the auto industry, here's a pretty good article by Professor David Yermack that came out on WJS this weekend.

Thursday, November 6, 2008

11/4 - 11/7 Day/swingtrades

This week, there were more headlines on the ailing automobile industry. The GMs and Fords have been important to the US for the past century. However, over time, management changes, unions (IMO, primary problem) and government bailouts have changed the landscape. Our automobile industry can no longer compete in the world economy. The GMs and Fords have become benefit administrators and they're horrible at it. Any additional government assistance will just prolong the inevitable failure of this industry. I would rather see the government provide financial assistance to relocate and/or retrain our autoworkers in industries that are more competitive. Think outside the box like those geniuses over at Porsche:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081107/ap_on_bi_ge/eu_germany_earns_porsche

Another interesting story is Yahoo. This is why company founders should not be running their own companies. Similar to many of my bad trades, Jerry Yang got too emotional with his position (YHOO holdings). Microsoft offered $33 and Jerry held out for $37 with no stop in place....now trading @ $12.20:

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/122751/Jerry-Yang

As for my trading, I had too many meetings to attend and deliverables to crank out at work this week so I kept the trading extremely light. I also let a $3+ profit on the LDK position fade on me so that was a good sign that my head was not in the game.



LDK - I picked up Nov 15 Calls late Monday for a "Stewie" ONH hold/setup. I got the gap open on Tuesday that I was looking for and actually pulled the quote up while at work and saw LDK print 26.50. I should have raised the stop at that point but left it at break-even which was taken out the next day.



BUCY - I had picked up the Nov 30 Calls a few weeks ago. The stock tanked down to below $20 so I was very happy to see it climb back up to $28+. I used this opportunity to exit the position for $0.50 loss. Last week, these calls were printing $0.30 which was a $2.00 paper loss at the time.



UYG - I had higher hopes for this one as it actually traded up to 11.00 on Tuesday. I closed the position @ 10.00 for $0.50 profit on calls and shares.

I'm hoping for a lighter week so I can get in some decent trades in the mornings.

Monday, November 3, 2008

11/3 Day/swingtrade

It looks to be choppy until the election is over. I don't see how the financials will rally with GS acting so weak. As for oil/energy, the Baltic Dry Index is below 1000. The fundamentals just don't look good. I'm not complaining, though. The rest of the world has been milking us with those high oil prices this past year. It's nice to get some relief at the pumps.

LVS - I used the gap open to unload the Nov 12.5 Calls from last week. There was still about $1.50 time premium on the calls so I figured I'd wait for a pullback and pick up the shares to get the 1:1 movement. I sold around 16.00 and netted $3.50 on the calls.




LDK - I picked up some Nov 15 Calls late in the day as volume and price picked up. Solar was strong today and overall, the sector has been beaten up so maybe we LDK can put in a couple more decent days.

10/29 - 10/31 Day/swingtrades

I haven't made too many daytrades over the past few days. Friday, I took minor (0.25-0.50) losses on AAPL and MS before they broke out. I've been trying to outsmart the market and playing the stops too tight. I did have some swings that worked out pretty well:

LVS - Casinos have rallied pretty well the past few days. I picked up some Nov 12.5 Call w/ stock at $9.50 on Wednesday. Friday, I daytraded shares as the opening range high (12.00) was taken out. I sold the shares @ 14.50 but am still holding the Calls.

UYG - The financials aren't rebounding as quickly as the rest of the sectors, especially with GS stuck in a rut. However, if we've seen a temporary bottom, the think there will be $2-3 upside from here. I picked up some Nov 8 Calls and shares w/ stock around $9.40 - 9.60.

Friday, October 31, 2008

MaysTrade

Welcome to the blogosphere, Billy! Check him out:



http://maystrade.blogspot.com/



During the trading day, Billy is usually over at Wallstreak or Dissect.org banking profits.

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

10/28 Day/swingtrades

What an incredible short squeeze. The markets gapped open higher, traded back down to close the gap and just took off in the final 2 hours. It incredible to compare yesterday's close to today's. I only managed to hop onto MS for $1.00 profit late in the day. I'll look for a retracement in the AM to initiate some long positions.

BTW, I was speaking to my boss today about her retirement portfolio which is in the shits. I know most of you readers are "traders" but just in case you have a nest egg somewhere that has taken a blow, now is NOT the time to diversify. This may just be a bear rally and we may even go back down(doubtful) tomorrow. However, with this volatility, I think you're better off taking your portfolio and stalking a stock or two that can get you 20-50% on a short-covering rally like today (i.e., CLF, X, CF, SSO). For instance, FNM picked up 16% today and was at $1.90 at the beginning of October. The government has already committed to supporting FNM/FRE so what is the downside. If my nest egg was down 50% , I'd have a higher chance of seeing FNM go to $1.20 to pick up the 50% than wait on a diversied portofolio that may never recover to its value 1 month ago. Anyways, this is NOT a recommendation...just a different perspective for the longer-term trader/investor. Now is not the time to be loyal to those schmucks that have been taking regular fees from your accounts with no consequences when they lose your money. It kills me to see my friends/co-workers entrust their retirement money to money managers that have no experience trading and have only ridden the coat-tails of the recent bull market.

Monday, October 27, 2008

Fear & Greed Trader

If you're having trouble daytrading this volatility, check out the human trading machine:



http://fearandgreedtrader.blogspot.com/



He's dialed-in, keeps it simple and banks six-figures on a daily basis!

10/27 Day/swingtrades

Looks like the rallies are still getting sold. I think we continue this way until the Fed announcement this week.

OIH - I picked up some Nov 40 Calls as it broke out of the triangle. I got stopped out @ 84.50 for 2.50 profit on calls. That would have been a great time to go short but I was too busy with a conference call.


POT - I went with Nov 30 Calls as it broke out of the base. The action was pretty weak as I got stopped out for $0.20 gain. Again, that would have been a perfect time to flip to the short side.









Friday, October 24, 2008

10/21 - 10/23 Day/swingtrades

I haven't traded much at all this week except for those energy swings on Monday and AAPL yesterday morning. Looking at those intraday charts the past couple days, I should have just called in sick for the week!

AAPL - I had time for one trade before heading out of the hotel yesterday morning. AAPL had a lot of selling pressure going into earnings on Tuesday. I just knew the afterhours gap could not hold in the AM as there would be too much profit-taking. Using the 1-min chart, I waited for AAPL to consolidate and cross below the moving averages. I shorted the stock for $2.80 profit.


OIH - After closing at the highs on Monday, the entire sector gapped lower on Tuesday AM. I sold @ 100.00 for $3.00 profit on the calls as OIH retraced most of the gap in the AM. There was another run-up late in the day but I was not around to get sucked in before the sell-off.



NOV - I should have taken profits on the run-up above $31 but eventually got stopped out for $0.30 loss on the sell-off.
BUCY - still holding the Nov 30 Calls.

Monday, October 20, 2008

10/20 Day/swingtrades

Energy/commodities were all the rage today. I jumped the gun in the AM and took $1.00 losses on ANR and APA. However, as the day progressed, I entered a few low-risk setups for swings.

OIH - I entered Oct 50 Calls as the volume started picking up midday.

NOV - "The Fly" has been all over this one the past few weeks so I kept it on the radar. I picked up shares as the premium on the calls were a bit too high.

BUCY - This didn't participate in today's movement but earnings are in a few days and I'm looking for a pre-earnings run-up along with any strength in the energy sector. I went with Nov 30 Calls since the stock is trading pretty far off from the daily moving averages and mid-30's is possible.

I'm out-of-town the rest of the week for work so trading/posting may be limited.

Friday, October 17, 2008

10/17 Day/swingtrades

Expiration day definitely lived up to its reputation today. There was a great opportunity to buy ATM/OTM calls at the open and then switch to puts mid-day as the market makers started squaring their positions and trying to "pin" stocks. I mainly stayed with GS and GOOG in the first half. OIH and basically all the energy/Ags were great options plays on the early morning dip as well. Too bad I didn't trade them.


GS - In addition to yesterday's Oct 100's, I picked up some 115's for only $1.00 as GS broke out of the 112 area. I sold the Oct 100's @ 118.00 for $9.00 profit and the Oct 115's for $2.50 profit as GS formed an intraday double-top @ 118.50.


GOOG - I picked up some Oct 380's around 376.00 for $2.80 as it broke out of the 370.00 narrow range. The premiums were still a bit high early in the day and GOOG had trouble breaking the 20-SMA on the daily at 385+(this level also coincided with the 20-SMA on the daily chart...see below) so I sold the calls @ $6.00 for $3.20 profit.




AAPL - What a loser stock today. I'm going to short this on the next leg down. I let my calls get stopped out at break-even in the morning.
Lastly, just to tie up some loose ends this month, I had a bunch of speculative positions expire on me. Each one was within my risk parameters except for OIH/UNG:
AIG (Oct 4 Calls) - I had locked in some profits and rolled the rest into Oct 4 Calls. The stock tanked along with the market after the rescue bill was signed. -$1.25 loss on Calls
C (Oct 25 Calls) - I had picked these up on the bullish looking daily chart. The Wells Fargo bid the following day derailed this trade. -$1.00 loss on Calls
FNM (Oct 2.5 Calls) - This trade also got derailed by the rescue bill sell-off. Loss - $0.25
OIH (Oct 165 Calls) - Damn, I forgot I even had these (Oct 165 Calls). I picked these up on a Monday or Friday just to see a gap open lower the next trading day. Obviously, they didn't recover. Loss - $3.90 on Calls
SMH (Oct 26 Calls) - Same thing here as for AIG/FNM. I had taken 1/2 off when it started fading. Loss - $0.65
UNG (Oct 33 Calls) - Apparently 33.00 wasn't the bottom. Loss - $3.40

Thursday, October 16, 2008

10/16 Day/swingtrades

Today played out very similar to last Friday. Morning selloff followed by a retest of the lows and then a bounce into positive territory. Most of the stocks on my watchlist either tested last Friday's lows or retraced to the break-0ut level. I've been using SKF/SRS/SMN/EEV to gauge the market direction. All those stocks started topping out before breaking down, which coincided with the market rebound off the lows. The action today was very bullish as we carved out a higher low compared to last Friday. We may be putting in a temporary bottom which would be nice given the carnage the past few weeks. Don't get me wrong, I'm all for shorting/puts but at these levels, the odds are better for a bigger move to the upside. Let's hope for another 1000 point move tomorrow!

OIH - I don't use this set-up as often as I should but many times, stocks will tag the moving averages (usually 15 or 30-min charts) before continuing the prior day's trend. GS did the same on the 1st 30-min candle but I didn't take that trade. Instead, I faded OIH with Oct 105 Puts as it tagged the 20-SMA on the 15-min chart. I switched to the 5-min chart to manage the exit and was taken out at 87.00 for $4.50 profit...before OIH moved even lower.


MS - I took a $0.40 loss as I entered in no man's land @ $17.60 in the middle of the day with a stop @ 17.20. Looking back at the 5-min chart, I don't know why I even entered at that time and how I came up with that stop instead of $16.90 ($0.10 below the morning low)...basically overtrading.
GS - Picked up some Oct 100 Calls @ 108.30.
AAPL - Picked up some Oct 100 Calls @ 97.00.
BTW, my biggest regret of the day was GOOG. I pulled up the chart @ $315 and saw a potential double-bottom ($310). I then pulled up the options but all the premiums were ridiculous ahead of earnings. Looking back, I should have halved my position size and just bought the stock which would have been good for $30+ into the close. I wouldn't have held over earnings, though.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

10/15 Day/swingtrades...none

Damn. I went into cash yesterday and had a lot of ammo to deploy when the market opened. Unfortunately, I was out of town on business and wasn't sure if the meeting schedule would allow me to manage any positions. I thought OIH was the best looking short (break below 98.00) in the AM but was headed out of the hotel when it started breaking down so decided against initiating any positions that may ruin my day. I'm happy I avoided the bloodbath but not happy about all the missed opportunities. I hope some of you were able to make some decent trades today. In contrast to Monday, ATM/OTM PUTS in energy/commodities would have paid out very nicely.


With 2 days before expiration, there should be lots of more opportunities to trade the volatility with exceptional risk/reward using ATM/OTM options. My plan for tomorow...if the markets gap up, I'll fade it to last Friday's lows. On a gap lower, I'll use the opening range high to pick up Calls and catch a move back to the moving averages. Scanning last Friday's charts will be helpful to prepare for tomorrow.

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

10/14 Day/swingtrades

Apparently, even the "professionals" are getting killed. Here's a link to the Journal article:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122394318763531045.html

"...Mr. Cohen, for instance, sold near half of his stock holdings last week, closing out the positions of roughly 50 managers who work for him because he felt they "weren't seeing the ball," says a person familiar with the situation. Mr. Cohen's decision was made at the end of September and comes from an attempt to stem this year's losses. He now plans to keep that money on the market sidelines for the rest of the year, though he is still trading a small portfolio, along with a few other managers. The managers whose portfolios were shut are feeding Mr. Cohen short-term trading ideas, the person says."

This morning's gap open was the perfect selling opportunity after the monster run-up yesterday. I was so busy closing out long positions in the first 30-40 minutes that I missed some opportunities to go short. I'm back to cash and will see how the market reacts to earnings.

GS - 2 weeks ago, I picked up a few Oct 130 Calls. I had assumed these would expire worthless. Instead, I used this morning's strength to close out the calls for only $0.50 (vs. 3.50 yesterday) loss.

MS - This was the biggest overnight winner for me due to my position size. I picked up $3.50 on the Oct 19 Calls. The Calls were only trading @ 1.15 when I bought them yesterday. The chart is very similar to that of UYG. For some reason, my charting software won't send me the chart for MS.

UYG - I closed this position at the open for $2.00 profit on the Oct 8 Calls.


AAPL - This was weak all day. I started this position with Oct 95 Calls on Friday when AAPL was back @ $95+ so I let it slip a couple dollars before finally exiting yesterday's Oct 110 Calls @ $112+ for $2.50 profit. I tried going short with Oct 110 Puts late in the day but got stopped out for $1.00 loss.

Monday, October 13, 2008

10/13 Day/swingtrades

I started this post yesterday:

Now that was a f'n rally!!! I wish I were posting some monster gains today but my excuse...insomnia. The winds were howling last night and I found myself looking at charts and reading news since 3:30AM PST. By the time the market opened, I was a zombie. I missed the first bounce off the moving averages but caught some of the late day craziness. BIDU and GOOG were definitely the options expiration trades of the day. Any ATM/OTM options in the morning would have paid off handsomely.

AAPL - I picked up about $8.00 on those Oct 95 calls purchase on Friday. I rolled the profits into Oct 110 Calls in case we get some weakness tomorrow.


UYG - Picked up Oct 8 Calls @ 10.02

MS - Picked up Oct 19 Calls @ 17.87

GS - This was the worse non-trade all day since I had it down on the gameplan. I was staring at this @ 100, 101, 102...it just never clicked to pick up the Oct 105 Calls which were trading $3+ at the time.