SOV Bull Spread? - Corrected Max Gain Below...targeting Oct 7.5 Calls better...

"Steveplace" corrected the max gain to be $1350 making this closer to 1:1 risk/reward with the Oct 5's. Not enough gain for me. I corrected the spread using Oct 7.5's below. Looking at SOV's action so far today, I'm not thrilled.

Assuming this financial mess corrects itself over the next few weeks, I'm going to consider a bull spread on SOV. BTW, SOV traded in a tight (0.05) range today setting up a great base-and-break daytrade. 10:1 reward to risk if you sold at $5.00 with a stop at $3.90...damn, where was I?! Here's what came out on Briefing.com:

"...Co also stated that SOC is well capitalized, according to all regulatory requirements. Co has unused committed liquidity of $12.0 billion from the Federal Home Loan Bank of Pittsburgh and the Federal Reserve. Co has undertaken a methodical process to reduce risk in recent months, including the liquidation of its entire CDO portfolio. Sovereign has only $200 million in debt maturing over the next 15 months at the holding company. Co is fundamentally sound by all financial and operational measures. Co is confident that this team will greatly improve their leadership as they intensify their focus on the fundamentals of their core franchise and conservatively manage their balance sheet."

Bull Spread - I like this set-up because the open interest and volume has shot up on the Oct 5's, thereby pushing up the implied volatility and option price as compared to the Oct 2.5's. Here's the breakdown using 10 contracts as an example:

Oct 2.5 Calls - asking 1.80, bidding 2.05, buy 10 @ 2.00 = $2000

Oct 7.5 Calls - asking 0.25, bidding 0.30, sell 10 @ 0.25 = $250

Max Risk - If stock goes to zero, you lose $1750 ($2.00 - $0.25 = 1.75 x 1000)

Max Gain - If stock trades at 7.50 on expiration, you profit $3250 ($5.00 - 2.00 + 0.25 = 1.35 x 1000)

2:1 for reward/risk...not bad but still a little too safe for me. I'm going to wait for another base-and-break to pick up the Oct 2.5 Calls and then sell the Oct 7.5 Calls when it starts to fade. Maybe I'll be able to pick up $0.50-$1.00 more than the scenario above.

9/30 Day/Swingtrades

Down 700+, 400+...what's next?! Expect this to be the norm with the short-selling ban and credit fears still in play.

MS - I picked up $1.50 on MS on a base-and-break daytrade. I took half off after $1.00 and closed the other half after hitting $2.00 profits.

UAUA - I picked up some Oct 7.5 Puts when it broke below $8.00 and sold them when the markets pulled up the airlines along with everything else. $0.15 loss on Puts.

AIG - I picked up some Oct 2.50 Calls as it broke above $3.20

9/29 Day/Swingtrades

Wow, more panic selling and it doesn't appear to be letting up anytime soon. People are pulling there bank deposits and most likely moving 401k's and IRA's into cash. That is not a good sign for the markets. On top of all that, the markets are waiting for the politicians, the same ones that promoted this mess the past few years, to bail us out...scary thought.

I try to stay away from the politics when it comes to trading but when I heard Nancy Pelosi's speech, I thought..."What the hell is she trying to do?!". I thought that was a horrible time to bash the Republicans. She should have used the speech she gave post-vote which was much more bipartisan. That may or may not have been the difference but better to stop the bleeding now and blame later. The bailout plan is not great by any means but it is not good for America or the world economies to have a systemic break-down of the capital markets. Here's a decent article on how the shippers are affected:

http://www.forbes.com/2008/09/27/shipping-china-closer-markets-equity-cx_ra_0926markets37.html?partner=yahootix

Anyways, I want to lean short but these gap-down days with the threat of a rally on bailout news have made entries tough to find.

OIH/UNG - I'm still holding. The gap lower means I'm down over $2.00 on each position but there's still a lot of time premium so I'm willing to wait on a rebound to get out of those bad trades.

SMH - I sold half for $0.30 loss when the stock broke below 24.50.

C - I sold the calls in the AM for $0.50 profit. I then re-entered as it broke out of the base on the 5-min chart @ 20.20 and picked up another $0.50 on the shares.

APA - I tried bottom-fishing with a small position as it bounced off the 101.00 level but later got stopped out for $1.50 loss.

AAPL - I picked up $1.00 on the Oct 130 Puts as it broke down from 105.00 to 103.50.

9/26 Day/Swingtrades

Friday, it looked like everyone was positioning for weekend news the last hour. It's crazy to watch the low volume spikes with the ban in short-selling, especially with the NYSE ringing the bell 1 minute too soon. Pull up the 2-day 1-min chart on STT. COF, ZION and JPM also spiked in the last few minutes. Let's see if our "elected" politicians can come to some agreement this weekend without any theatrics.



As I mentioned on the previous post, I got nailed for holding POT and WB calls overnight. So, I spent the morning looking for good exit points and also trying to position for the weekend.

POT - Ouch...even for the small position
Bought @ 158.00,
Sold @ 149.50
Loss - $8.50 on Calls


WB - I should have dumped this when it didn't participate in yesterday's rally.
Bought @ 15.25
Sold @ 10.00
Loss - $2.50 on Calls


UNG - I picked up some calls as it traded back down to the 33.00 support level. This area has been decent support the past month so I like the risk/reward.

OIH - I picked up some Oct 165 Calls at the close. This is the same logic as last week. Oil looks like it wants back up and any rescue package should weaken the dollar and strengthen commodities.


I added some more SMH Oct 26 Calls and am still holding the C Oct 17.5 Calls from yesterday.

9/25 Day/swingtrades

I've been sloppy with tracking my trades and have paid the price.

AAPL - I got in late on the run-up to 134.00 so took $0.50 loss on the Oct 100 Calls when the stock fell back below 131.50 towards the end of the day. Glad I didn't hold overnight (which I considered) with RIMM missing earnings after the close.

C - I picked up some Oct 17.5 Calls as the stock broke out of the 19.40 area.

FNM - Despite the dilution with the government taking up 80% of FRE/FNM, these guys have been holding up very well. I picked up some shares @ $2.20 and sold the Oct 3 Calls which brings my break-even down to $1.70.

POT - I picked up some Oct 100 Calls as the $155 area held up pretty well. Not a good idea given the gap lower on Friday.

9/24 Day/Swingtrades

Yesterday's trades:



GS - I sold the shares @ 129 for 13.00 profit. As it consolidated on the 5-min chart, I picked up some Oct 70's @ 130.50 and sold 1/2 for 2.50 profit around 133.50 and got stopped out at breakeven on the 2nd half at the close.

AMGN - There was too much support under 58.00 so I sold the Oct 65 Puts for $0.50 loss. Looking at today's tape, I should have flipped to calls.

SMH - I joined Darwin with some Oct 26 Calls.

WB - I picked up some Oct 12.5 Calls @ 15.23 as the stock traded back above the moving averages on the 30-min chart and in anticipation of the bailout news.

9/23 Day/Swingtrades

Up then down...back up and finally back down. Today was all about closing Friday's gap. Ags were a good short today but I hesitated on the morning market strength.

POT - I picked up Oct 100 Calls @ 166.00 after the gap closed. I was sitting on $5.00 profit before that evaporated into a $2.50 loss in the final minutes. I should have moved the stop to break-even but thought POT would rebound like GS did below.

GS - I picked up a few Oct 180 puts @ 116.00 but got stopped out awhile later for $0.40 loss. The bid/ask spread tightened today so going "short" financials is still possible. However, timing is important since you won't have short sellers to help push the stock down. As the market turned, I went long some shares as GS traded above the moving averages. Looks like Buffet will be helping but that may be tempered by GS's equity offering...we'll see. Here's a chart showing the gap closure:

BTW, I'm sure the Buffet info got leaked...probably GS buying there own stock. Typical Wallstreet shenanigans. However, no way the stock goes straight up like that on low volume if shorting was allowed.

9/22 Day/Swingtrades

So much for banning short-selling, huh? Financials were weak all day and were an obvious short...if you could short them. Shorting via DITM puts was an option but the bid/ask spread would cost you $1-2 in premium. If you were buying puts in GS, $1-2 dollars would have been acceptable if you knew it would come down $9+...I didn't.

BTW, Para-Olympics concluded in Beijing on 9/17. Maybe all the cars and factories are up and running again. Oil sub-$100 was very short-lived!

Looks like this week will continue last week's volatility. I think most stocks will retrace Friday's gap as everyone takes their profits and as soon as the bailout is approved and finalized, we'll get another rebound.

I was a bit too trigger-happy today...

SRS - Moved the stop up too soon. Bought @ 73.20 and stopped @ 74.50.

AAPL - Bought @ 136.63, Stopped out at @ 137.10...and didn't re-enter...

MOS - Bought @ 95.00, Sold @ 96.70

AMGN - Bought @ 58.33, Oct 65 Put...time to close the gap at $54!

9/19 Day/Swingtrades

I've been so stuck on daytrade-mode that it didn't dawn on me to take some OTM call options home. This similar scenario played out in July when the government intervened and I was quick enough to take home a bunch of call options on the banks. This time I talked myself out of it so only had AAPL calls to sell in the AM. Regarding the government intervention the past few days, I think it will temporarily halt the slide and fear in stocks but over the next few months, we still need to deal with lousy earnings and a continued weak economy. Also, here's an interesting tidbit on supposed naked short-selling:


http://www.thestreet.com/story/10438109/2/kass-blame-the-blamers.html


Anyways, this was a crazy week. I hope everyone took home some gains or at least didn't lose too much due to the craziness. I'm currently 100% cash and will see if any trends develop next week. After the monster moves the last 2 days, I'd rather wait for a pullback than chase anything at this point. Some of these stocks are higher than where they were 9 months ag0...ridiculous. Once these financial companies/holders factor in the billions of dollars lost in the past few weeks, I think the market will retest the lows. In the mean time, this theory won't prevent me from participating in any tradeable rallies. Energy/commodities may be back in favor based on Friday's late-day strength. Also, all this debt that the government will absorb is not good for the dollar...but good for oil.


As for Friday:


AAPL - I sold yesterday's remaining Sep 130 Calls @ 142 for $9.00 profit.




GS - I entered long too early and got stopped out for $1.00 loss on Sep 120 Calls. As it consolidated into a range in the afternoon, I picked up Puts as it broke below 127.00 and sold @ 122.00 for $4.00 profit on the Puts.



GOOG - I was hoping for a break-out above 150 but instead, took a $1.00 loss on the Sep 450 Calls.

9/18 Day/Swingtrades

Wrote this yesterday but forgot to post. Wish I held all those longs...

Another wild f'n day! I was short all morning for some gains and then got caught holding BEN puts just as I was about to pat myself on the back. After going to cash, I cleared my head and went long a few calls but it felt like I was picking up the scraps. So much money left on the table...



Shorts

GS - I picked up $5.00 on the Sep 140 Puts as it broke the opening range low @ $105. I sold @ 99.50. Then, I was getting my order ready to re-enter and double-up with Sep 105 Puts as it consolidated and broke through $99.00 but I was 5 f'n seconds too late as the $10+ freefall took off without me. I need to use automated contingent orders more often.



MS - This set-up a very tight range at $20.20 before breaking through. I picked up only $2.00 with Sep 30 Puts as it retraced on me before falling down to $11.70.



BEN - What f'n timing. I was trying to decide between SKF Puts on the double-top or BEN Puts on an inverse HG. Wrong choice. I went with BEN 95 Puts as it crossed below 82.50. The market turned on a dime and I ate a "hefty" $6.00 loss as BEN rallied to my "uncle" point of $88.00.



Longs

GS - After the reversal, I waited for GS to pull back and re-entered with Sep 105 Calls @ 106.00. I dumped the calls @ 114.00 for $4.00 profit.



AAPL - I was trying to decide which tech to go long in the last hour. I looked at BIDU, GOOG and AAPL. BIDU looked like it was lagging and apparently it caught up and took off after I looked at the chart. I picked up AAPL Sep 135 Calls @ 132.50 and dumped 1/2 at $135.00 for $1.00 profit.



Net-net, I made some money but missed a lot of great moves today. The 5-min charts on WB and FED looked great for low-risk entries. In the last hour, BIDU and CME were the options expiration plays of the day. BLK reversed big as well but I did look at those OTM options and the bid/ask spread was too far apart at the time.

9/17 Day/Swingtrades and...NO Gasparino!!!

That was damn ugly today...if you were on the wrong side of the trade. I was on the wrong side with energy/commodities early on but switched over to financials.

OIH - I thought energy/commodities would close the gap but looks like buyers were waiting until late in the day.
Bought @ 154.90, Sep 150 Calls
Sold @ 154.35
Loss - $0.49 on Calls

X - Same thinking as above
Bought @ 94,78, Sep 100 Calls
Sold @ 90.83
Loss - $0.70 on Calls

GS - I traded the same set-up as yesterday after GS bounced off the moving averages. I'm glad Gasparino didn't get in the way today.

Bought @ 122.00, Sep 130 Puts
Sold @ 102.00
Profit - $17.00 on Puts



SKF - I picked up just a few bucks from 138 to 140.50.
Bought @ 137.80, Sep 100 Calls
Sold @ 140.30
Profit - $2.50 on Calls



UAUA - Sold at the open for $0.30 loss

UNG - Bought Sep 35 Calls at the close

9/16 Day/Swingtrades and Gasparino!!!

This guy must be drawing a check from the Plunge Protection Team. Everything was going well with my calls(puts) until his bullshit announcement. I didn't want to get bitten again on an AIG announcement so waited until after the Fed announcement to trade.



SRS - Stopped out for $0.50 loss on Sep 90 & 95 Calls.

SKF - I just began the trade off the moving averages before Gasparino came on. I was sitting on a hefty $8.00 loss but was patient let the stock retrace after the fear subsided. Picked up the calls @ 132.00 and sold @ 130.00 for $2.00 loss.

GS - I traded in an out of this but ended up getting stopped out each time for $2.00 loss on Puts.

OIH - I picked off $1.00 on the Sep 150 Calls as it rallied along with the energy sector in the last hour.

UAUA - I picked up some shares @ 13.80 as it broke the opening range high. I'll dump these in the AM if oil shows some strength.

Enery/commodities showed a lot of strength towards the close. With all this government intervention and bailouts, the dollar should weaken a bit feeding into already oversold sectors. If this sector shows strength tomorrow, I'll be using the 20-SMA on the 30-min chart for low-risk entries. I'll be focusing on the usual suspects (OIH, APA, DO, BUCY, HES, NOV, POT, CF, X, CLF and solars) for big moves and position with at-the-money calls.

Also, if the market goes higher, ESRX looks like it wants to break-out of that 76.00 area.

9/15 Day/Swingtrades

What a wild f'n day! We would have been much further along in a recovery had Paulson let Bear Stearns fail 6 months ago and put the fear in all the banks to clean up their acts. Instead, the government's bailout and subsequent lending facilities just postponed the inevitable. I wouldn't be surprised if Paulson lets them all fail until his cronies at Goldman are the only ones standing. This market action is setting up for a very ugly October.

Regarding options expiration set-ups this week, the premiums are still a bit high given all the volatility so I'm going to wait a couple more days as we get closer to Friday to load up on at-the-money options for intraday trades.

GS - I picked up Sep 180 Puts @ 147.35 and sold waaaay too early @ 144.00 for $3.00 profit on the Puts.


LM - I sold my remaining position for $5.00 profit on the Puts. It will probably go lower tomorrow but with GS reporting and the Fed meeting, I didn't want too much exposure overnight.

BUCY - I got stopped out of my remaining position at break-even.

SHLD - I sold this out flat after the open.

UNG - I used the intraday spike to unload this for $0.20 loss on the Calls.

Swings

WNR - I'm glad I rolled my position into the Sep 12.5 Calls. Despite today's drop, I've still got half my cost intact on the premiums so I'll wait it out another day.

SRS - I picked up some Sep 90 Calls when the stock broke 88.00 and then some Sep 95's at the close. A few fellow bloggers have said that commerical real estate is the next shoe to drop and I believe it. With all these banks selling assets to raise capital, it will be a fire sale. Have you driven by your local "industrial" park or office centers lately? The ones in my area are like a ghost town.

9/12 Day/Swingtrades

Man, this thing was big a week ago before hitting Cuba. Hope everyone in the Texes/Louisiana area stayed safe this weekend.

CF - I sold the position when CF retested the intraday high and fell back. Picked up $5.00 on the Sep 115 Calls.

ICE - I dumped these calls as the stock retraced to 90.00. Prior to announcing record volume on its exchange, they presented some slideshow that indicated a dilution to earnings due to the Creditex acquisiont. I'm out for $0.75 loss on Sep 95 Calls.

WNR - Nice call by "The Fly" on http://www.ibankcoin.com/. I picked up some Sep 10 Calls and shares that I sold at the close for $1.00 profit. I then rolled some of the profits into the Sep 12.5's. If there's another sell-off on Monday, I'd rather see the $0.70 for the Sep 12.5's go to zero than the $2.50 for the Sep 10's go to zero. On the other hand, if WNR jumps a few points, I'll only miss out on $0.70 of the move...risk management.

Still holding BUCY Sep 45 Calls, SHLD 100 Calls (I may have caught this at the end of the move so I'll let it go below 99.00 and re-enter later), LM 45 Puts and UNG 35 Calls.

9/11 Day/Swingtrades

What a f'n day to have technical problems. I spent the 1st 2 hours of the day getting OptionsXpress to honor my trades so ended up playing catch up all day. That was a strong rally off the opening lows so maybe we get a near-term relief rally.

BUCY - I took 1/2 off the table @ 47.80 for $2.00 gain on the calls.

LM - I took 1/2 off the table @ 39.80 for $3.00 gain on the calls.

SHLD - I picked up some Sep 100 Calls. This stock has been bucking the trend along with the retailers. It has a high short interest and just broke resistance at 96.00. This has wild swings so I picked up the OTM calls for some cushion.

CF - I picked up some Sep 115 Calls in case the Ags just formed a double-bottom the last few days.

ICE - I picked up some Sep 95 Calls.

9/10 Day/Swingtrades

I managed to scalp about $0.50 on X above 101.00 today. Otherwise, I didn't see many great set-ups.

BUCY - Per last night's post, I picked up a few BUCY 45 Calls at 44.00 and again at 45.00.

UNG - Still holding.

LM - My 1st target was $41+ so I would have taken partial profits on the dip to 41.40 but the movement was too quick. Goldman downgraded the asset managers so look for continued weakness in this sector.

DITM vs. ATM/OTM Options

RB posted a question as to which options I trade as expiration week nears. Generally, I'll switch to at-the-money options on expiration week. However, it all depends on the stop level, volatility, option premium and target exit price. Here are a few examples:

BIDU - Today it opened up above $270. Assuming you believed (in hindsight, this looked like a great set-up...where the F* was I?) that it would retest the recent lows due to the market weakness, there was a good entry point at $269 on the 5-min chart. I would have targeted the recent lows at $260, so a $9.00 move.
Stop-level - $271.00, so $2.00 risk
Volatility - highly volatile so high premiums
Option Premium - I'm guessing Sep 270 Puts would have cost about $12.00 w/ BIDU at $269.00. Sep 320 Puts would probably have cost $51.50 w/ BIDU at 269.00
Target Exit Price - I would have exited at $260.00, the recent low. Assuming you are risking $1000 on each trade, 10 Sep 270 Puts would have cost $12k and you probably would be able to sell the Puts @ $16.00, making a profit of $4k. With Sep 320 Puts, you'll have to put up $51.5k for 10 Puts but you'll make about $9k. Some would argue that percentage-wise, you're making more with the Sep 270 Puts. However, I'd say $9k is still more than $4k. With DITM options, you need to focus on the dollar movement not the percentage movement.

BUCY - I "believe" this has been oversold along with the energy/commodity sectors. When it reverses, it could easily get back to $51.00. At $43.50, that's a $7.50 move.
Stop-level - Assuming $43.50 holds, I'd say a stop @ 41.50 so $2.00 risk
Volatility - highly volatile so high premiums
Option Premium - This has gone down so far, you can't even get DITM options. In this case, I'd go with the Sep 45 Calls
Target Exit Price - Assuming you are risking $1000, 10 Sep 45 Calls would cost $2k and at $51, they should be worth about $7.50. If you get stopped out at $41.50, you'll only lose $1-1.50 on the Calls.

LM - I picked up LM today due to there exposure to FNM/FRE as well as LEH. My target is $41+.
Stop-level - I picked these up late in the day so my stop would be back at the early AM highs around 47.50.
Volatility - not as volatile as the stocks above. If I went with DITM, the Sep 50 Puts would do the trick.
Option Premium - At the current price, there is about $1.30 premium on the Sep 45's (2.60 ask) and only $0.30 on the Sep 50's (6.60 ask).
Target Exit Price - Assuming you are risking $1000, 10 Sep 45 Puts would cost $2.5k and at 41.00, they should be worth at least $4.50 giving you $2k profit. The $1000 risk should get stopped out at $47.00. On the other hand, with the Sep 50's, you'll only be able to pick up 3 Sep 50 Puts (more if you tighten your stop) to keep your loss at $1000 if you get stopped out at 47.00. At 41.00, the Sep 50 Puts should be worth at least $9.00 giving you only $700 profit.

Regardless of the stock or trade, I always try to determine my stop-level and target price which enables me to position-size and select the options accordingly.

9/9 Day/Swingtrades

The VIX stair-stepped its way to 25.5 into the close. It could be a big down day tomorrow.

POT - Bought a few puts in the AM as it broke $144.00 for $3.00 profit on puts.

ANR - Tried to bottom-fish but got stopped out of a few shares for $1.00 loss.

Swings:

WM - Stopped out this morning for $0.05 loss on the calls.

ABK - Stopped out this morning for $0.20 loss on the calls but overall it was a profitable trade since I had originally entered in the high 6's.

AMGN - One of the few stocks that actually stayed green today. I sold the puts for $0.50 loss.

STI - Sold this out flat in the AM.

LM - Picked up some puts

9/8 Day/Swingtrades

Another wild day and more commission to my broker.

BIDU - I sold the remaining position @ 280.50 when the opening range could not hold.
Bought @ 267.82
Sold 1/2 @ 274.00 & 280.50
Profit - $9.00 average on calls

WM - This dropped all the way down to trigger my stop. I decided late in the day to re-enter based on the rebounding volume but may let it go if the stock doesn't rally tomorrow since it didn't participate in today's strength. There are plenty of stronger financial stocks out there.

ABK - Here's another one that triggered my stop. I want to play the longer term trend on this so I re-entered around 8.40 with about $0.20 slippage on the calls.

AMGN - I picked up some puts as it broke below the $60.00 support level.

STI - I picked up some calls as volume and price rallied into the close.

WB - I picked up a few shares as it bounced off the moving averages on the 15-min chart but my stop was too tight so it was triggered a bit later for $0.20 loss.

Deja Vu last Monday?!

If you saw my watchlist, you'd think we were down 200-300 on the Dow instead of up. I dumped everything except UNG.

Fading the open would have resulted in massive gains. The tape looks just as sick as last week. Tread carefully.

9/8 Stocks I'm Watching

Looks like we'll get a decent move in the financials this week. I may add to the WM and ABK calls if they catch some of the momentum. MBI is another one that has held up pretty well all last week:

I'll be looking to re-enter ICE on a pullback as well as some of the energy/commodities as IKE may spark another run-up. I still think this will just be another bear rally that lasts only a few days, so I'll be looking for short candidates as the week progresses.

9/5 Day/Swingtrades

What a pisser. Some days these short-term timeframes work against you. I should have anticipated the sell-off this morning with looser stops. Instead, I got stopped out of my reversal plays which eventually recovered the rest of the day. It would have been an easier day had I just held these positions...along with ICE from yesterday. Today's action was bullish and if we get some decent news on FNM/FRE over the weekend, the financials may push the market up a bit. That should provide some good low-risk set-ups to initiate short/put positions heading into October earnings.

POT - Stopped out @ 151.00, flat
DO - Stopped out @ 104.00, Profit - $1.00
CLR - Stopped out @ 41.00, Loss - $1.00

On the other hand, I caught a nice move on BIDU and MOS.

MOS - Trader Sloth pointed out the bull flag. I thought POT/CF were stronger but it was easier to manage the risk on MOS. Despite the late day strength, I sold the entire position going into the weekend. Profit - $2.00 on calls.

BIDU - I picked up some BIDU calls as the market strengthened up and it broke 268.00. I sold 1/2 at it tagged the 20-SMA (see 30-min chart) for $6.00 profit on calls.

I'm swinging BIDU, WM, ABK and UNG into next week. Have a great weekend!

9/4 Links

How about this for red:

http://finviz.com/map.ashx?t=sec


Here's a link to Dryship's market report on tanker rates:

http://www.dryships.com/index.cfm?get=report

The Baltic Dry Index is now 50% below the May/June high. Need more proof of a global slowdown?

Time to fade the rallies again and swing the short positions...which I should have done starting Tuesday.

9/4 Day/Swingtrades

Nice bloodbath in the streets today. I stayed with tech and pulled the trigger on BIDU & GOOG.

BIDU - Nice downtrend the last few days. I sold a bit early.
Bought @ 284.00, Pyramid @ 279.80
Sold @ 274.50
Profit - $7.00 on Puts

GOOG - This opened below support at 260.00. I picked up the puts a bit earlier but after tagging the moving averages, it came back down.

Bought @ 460.24

Sold @ 450.50

Profit - $10.00 on Puts

Swings:

VPHM - Stopped out for $0.30 loss on Sep 15 Calls

ICE - Sold @ 93.50, Profit - $2.00 on calls

ABK - still holding

WM - still holding

CLR - picked up a few calls @ 41.87 as it bounced off support around 41.00

DO - picked up a few calls @ 102.88 as it traded back above the moving averages on the 30-min chart

POT - picked up a few calls @ 150.22...looks to be reversing on 30-min chart.

UNG - picked up a few calls @ 33.84 as it showed strength late in the day.

9/3 Day/Swingtrades

It's been awhile since I froze up on a trade. I was all set-up to pick up puts on the ferts but got too distracted with all the green (I had a few financials and tech) on my screen. I need to do a better job of reshuffling my watchlist to make sure I seize these opportunities as they don't come that often. On the bright side, my positions held up pretty well.

WM - Still holding

VPHM - Still holding but losing patience

ICE - Sold the Sep 95 Calls for $0.30 loss and moved into Sep 70 Calls. With 3 weeks to expiration, I want to see more of a 1-to-1 movement. So far this has been the better play as I'm up $1.00 on the calls.

ABK - Nice pop today. I took some profits off the table.

SPWR - Whoops, forgot to mention this one. Despite my plan to exit at the open when it gappedd up, I ended up selling for a $0.50 loss on the calls.

9/1 Day/Swingtrades

Despite all the great set-ups, I was still recovering from the weekend and was too late to a few trades. RIMM and X would have been great shorts as both opened right below support levels and spent the day selling-off. As I mentioned in an earlier post, I was leaning towards a sell-off once the big boys returned but didn't expect it today after the strong opening. We should get some sort of retracement tomorrow as I think the sell-off was overdone and just a lot of short-term profit-taking after the gap open. That said, I'm going to be looking for opportunities to fade any strength as we move deeper into September. While I'm currently swinging some financials on the long side, the weakness in tech and energy/commodities does not leave many sectors for the bulls to hide in. Also, the Vix closed above its declining channel and looks to be headed back up.

ENER - There was some post-earnings support around 74.00. Once it gapped open below this level, I waited for a break of the OR low.
Bought @ 72.07 & 70.77, Puts
Sold @ 69.61 & 70.11
Profit - $1.50 average on Puts

SPWR - I picked up some calls in the last hour. This looks a bit oversold so I'm looking for a bounce back up to $93-94 early tomorrow morning.

Still holding ABK, VPHM, ICE and WM calls.

9/1 Charts

The markets are up huge this AM so I'll probably wait for some consolidation before jumping in. I'm leaning towards daytrading the weakness in energy/commodities and fading stocks that close the opening gap. Here some charts to keep an eye on: