Thursday, April 30, 2009

4/30 - Day/swingtrades - LVS

Scanning the charts at the open, I just had a feeling that folks would be selling into the strength. We've been overbought for quite some time and it usually takes one of these gap opens to the upside for the institutions to sell into the strength as the retail trader gets sucked into the last gasp euphoria. Also, a lot of charts were showing double-tops with diverging MACDs. I'm always on the lookout for these on gap open days. Below are a couple obvious examples. Unfortunately, despite the gameplan to fade the strength, I just couldn't get myself to trade the setups with the Dow/Spy positive for most of the day. Time to recharge and clear out the bullish mental blocks in case the weakness carries through over the next few trading sessions.






LVS - Too bad I had sold half the position yesterday but LVS gapped open this morning. As I mentioned above, after the momentum the past few days, I was looking to sell into the strength. I closed out the position @ 8.90. I would normally place a stop at the opening range low but check out the 2nd red hammer bar which took LVS down to $8.40. It reversed so quickly that I didn't even get a chance to place the stop so I decided to switch to the 1-min chart and sold when the stock started fading during the next bar. Also, LVS actually traded up to $9.60 in pre-market but that is the downside of options, you can't unload them during the pre and post-market excitement. No biggy as I picked up over $3 on the 2nd half of the position.


Wednesday, April 29, 2009

4/25 - 4/29 Day/swingtrades - DNDN, SLAB, WFC, LVS

After a couple choppy sessions, we finally got some nice trends today. The bears are definitely getting frustrated as every dip is being bought. There is still a lot of cash on the sidelines so until we get a significant catalyst to the downside, I'm going to continue trading the tape to the long side. I got stopped out of a couple setups myself during the chop but here are a couple decent daytrades and updates on my swings:

DNDN - Similar to a surprise earnings announcements that gaps a stock up, creating support/resistance lines, DNDN announce some news on their drug a couple weeks ago. I kept it on the radar and was finally rewarded when the high established on 4/14 was breached. It didn't take very long to move a couple bucks so I took profits and ran. Fortunately, I wasn't around when the stock plunged later in the day.





SLAB - Earnings were pretty positive so I took a position after the stock consolidated and bounced off the moving averages. Another way to trade this stock was to wait until the opening range high, $32.50, was broken. Notice the 2 red bars after the stock first hits $32.50. Lots of traders will use the opening range high to take profits so expect a pullback and consolidation before breaking through. As in most cases, I used the moving averages as my initial stop so did not get shaken out.




WFC - The post-earnings momentum didn't materialize on Monday so I unloaded the calls for $0.50 loss.


LVS - This has held up nicely the past week. I like seeing those white bars on the daily. It finally got close to my initial target around $8.00 so I unloaded half my May 5 calls. I'm going to trail the stop with the other half. Normally, I'd roll some of the profits into the next strike price but the premiums are a bit expensive for the May 7.5 Calls so I'll wait for a pullback and gauge the overall market conditions.





Thursday, April 23, 2009

4/22 - 4/24 Day/swingtrades

I had quite a few daytrades the past few days so I highlighted a few different setups below. The common theme with the setups are low-risk entries where I can comfortably manage the stop (risk).

WFC - This is a post-earnings momentum trade. I like to watch the lows/highs that are printed on the day of earnings. These serve as support/resistance levels for people betting on earnings. WFC built up some resistance around $21 following surprise earnings a couple weeks ago. Now that the profit-taking has cleared out, I think newcomers can push this up a few bucks. I went with the May 20 Calls to give me some cushion in case we get some profit-taking on Monday.



AAPL - This setup involves the RSI and oversold conditions. The key to this setup is to trade with the market momentum and wait for confirmation. In other words, if the market is trading up, and the stock breaks down, I'll trade for a rebound back up along with the market momentum. AAPL broke down a couple days ago, prior to its earnings release. However, the market was still up (at the time, it sold off later in the day). Once the RSI got below 30, I waited for a reversal signal on the candles to catch a low-risk entry. Fortunately, this coincided with the opening range low which usually acts as support.




OIH - This is a "holy grail" bounce off the moving averages. Similar to most of the setups I trade, this allows for a low-risk entry with the moving averages as support. OIH ran hard out of the gates so I didin't feel like chasing it. It finally started pulling back to the moving averages. I don't like the risk of catching a falling knife so I normally wait for some type of reversal signal. In this case, there was a bullish hammer that was confirmed by the following up-candle.




LVS - I picked up some May 5 Calls @ 5.74 a couple days ago as the daily chart was looking pretty bullish on Tuesday's bounce off the moving averages. I added to the calls this morning @ 7.05 and picked up some shares but dumped those ahead of the stress test release. I'm looking to unload or roll the calls to a higher strike price if LVS can get to $8 or gaps open next week.




Tuesday, April 21, 2009

4/21 Day/swingtrades - FAZ, BAC

Yesterday's weakness didn't last very long at all. The bulls are determined to keep this uptrend intact.

FAZ - This gapped up at the open but unfortunately, the opening range could not hold. I let go half at the low of the opening range low and closed out the position when the bounce off the moving averages could not hold.


BAC - This settled into a brief narrow range and then printed a hammer off the moving averages. I like this setup because the narrow range allows me to increase the position size while still managing the same risk. I closed out the position for an even $0.50.



Monday, April 20, 2009

4/20 Day/Swingtrades - FAZ

After the buying spree last week and today's gap open downward, we may drift sideways to down until the stress-test results are released. I wanted to be positioned for any further weakness so I pretty much stayed with FAZ all day. In addition to catching a couple intraday breakouts, I picked up shares on the break of the narrow range early on. After locking in some profits, I moved into May 12.5 Calls which were asking $2.00. That's out-of-the-money and a bit of premium but there's plenty of time before expiration and I want some downside protection in case the setup fails and FAZ gaps down on me. Looking at the 30-min charts, this same pattern played out on Monday - 3/30 but FAZ could not sustain the momentum the following days. The difference today is that there was much more volume.





Friday, April 17, 2009

4/16 - 4/17 Option Expiration Trades

I caught some good moves the past few days leading up to options expiration. I like this time of the month because the premiums dry up, allowing me to trade expensive, high-flying stocks with minimal capital. Depending on the setup, I can also lever up 2-5x my normal position size. The key is to trade the same set-up as you would any time of the month but to consider increasing your position size with ATM or OTM options. Here are a few setups I took, both moving on earnings momentum:

GOOG - I rarely trade off the 1-min charts but there was a ton of movement in GOOG afterhours yesterday following earnings so I wanted to see how it moved at the open. I picked up the Apr 390 Calls and sold a few minutes later @ $396 for about $5.



ISRG - This has been quite volatile the past few days. I picked up the Apr 120 Calls on the break of $120. I like to trail my stops with the low of the previous candle but after that $5 bar printed, I got out for $5. I was multi-tasking with too many positions and didn't think to add the Apr 125 Calls. The range on the Apr 125 Calls was $0.05 - 7.68 today...amazing if anyone caught the low and dumped at the high.




GOOG - Below is a close-up of GOOG's 5-min chart for today. I picked up some Apr 390 Calls on the break of $393 and sold 15 minutes later for $1.40 on the calls. Again, only on options expiration day can I trade a $400- stock for $3.







Wednesday, April 15, 2009

4/15 Day/Swingtrades - FAZ, GS

The markets were weak early in the day but it just felt like there were a lot of buyers stepping in. Pull up the chart for MA. It doesn't get much narrower than that $163 area. I actually tried going short via Puts but was stopped out flat when the beige book numbers were release. In any case, it looks like the bulls still own the tape. In terms of low-risk, high-reward options expiration plays, I didn't see much out there. CME and GOOG had some very nice reversals but I didn't get in on either of them, despite having the charts up all day.

FAZ - This gapped up at the open as I had hoped. However, the opening range didn't hold up so I sold half and moved my stop to break-even which was triggered a while later. I think I eeked out about $0.10 on this trade. FAZ and SKF are dead for awhile.



GS - The chart below looks a bit busy and hence the lack of posts the past couple months...among other reasons. I've been trading these narrow range breakouts quite a bit lately. This is a good example of why I like to trade deep-in-the-mony options. You can wait all day on a $20 stock to see it break-out and move up $1. Or, you can focus on an expensive momentum stock and catch the same set-up multiple times through the day. Deep-in-the-money options allow me to participate in the price movement on a $100+ stock without tying up all my capital. Position-sizing and risk management are crucial regardless of what I trade, DITM options or stock. On the first trade below, I picked up the Apr 110 and 120 calls. The Apr 110 Calls got me almost dollar-for-dollar movement...or $2 in this case. The Apr 120 Calls were out-of-the-money and I only picked up $1 on the calls but on options expiration week, I like to add the OTM calls and use them to my advantage in case the stock takes off on me. On the second trade, I traded the same set-up or break of the narrow range. The market averages and technicals all confirmed the breakout so I pyramided immediately. In this case, I was carrying about 40 Calls. If I was trading the stock, I would have needed to use up almost $500k in capital. The trade-off is that I was giving up $0.15 between the bid/ask spread but overtime, I've learned to accept the slippage as a condition for trading bigger lots. I netted about $1.50 on this trade.


Tuesday, April 14, 2009

4/14 Day/swingtrades

Despite the opening weakness, today's action looked choppy as there are still quite a few dip buyers left from the recent runup. For the past few weeks, any bad news has been bought. Today, GS killed their surprise earnings with an offering priced @ $123 and last month's retail numbers didn't looked too good. So, we may be in for some near-term weakness. If so, it shouldn't surprise anyone as we've had a pretty good runup the past few weeks and need a decent pause/consolidation to digest the gains.

GS - This was definitely on my radar from the opening bell. If you pull up the 5-min chart, GS had a very hard time getting past the 20ma. I actually took 3 trades on GS today but only two are shown on the charts. I entered the first trade on the break of support and opening range low around $121.00. I went with the Apr 125 puts with an initial target of $118 (support established prior to breaking out last Friday) and a second target of $115 to fill last week's gap. I took partial profits @ 119.00 and closed the position when the 1st target was hit @ $118...netting $2.00 on the puts. For the second trade (red candle at 2pm EST), I was actually up $1 on the puts but had cable problems and ended up getting stopped out flat before I could readjust the stop to lock in the profit. Finally, GS broke down again in the last 30 minutes. I picked up the Apr 120 Puts and closed the position when the gap was closed @ $115.20...netting $1.20 on the puts.


C - I used the open strength to close out the rest of this position @ $4.40. With the GS weakness at the open, I figured it was just time before the rest of the financials got dragged down. I don't like to view trades in % gains as I'm more focused on dollar for dollar movements but $0.25 to $1.40 is pretty good...especially if position-sized correctly.



FAZ - Like I said, there were quite a few dip buyers out there today. I first entered FAZ as it broke the opening range high, around $10.10. I tightened the stop to $10.40 which was triggered awhile later. I also got stopped out flat around 2PM EST as I picked up FAZ shares along with the GS puts above. Finally, I re-entered at the close as volume picked up and the financials weakened into the close. This is a speculative ONH (ala Stewie) play as overnight holds in FAZ have NOT been rewarded the past few weeks. However, FAZ is finally trading above the moving averages on most timeframes and the Calls should give me some downside cushion if the setup fails tomorrow.








Monday, April 13, 2009

4/13 Day/swingtrades

I haven't posted much as I've been in daytrading mode the past couple months and there have been too many charts to put up. It looks like we've been in a nice uptrend lately. It appears we may be overbought but I'll keep riding the trend until it ends.

I've been mainly trading the financials stocks. The 5 & 15-min charts have been helpful to reduce some of the "noise" as the Vix has now come down below 40. The low-priced issues like BAC/C/FAS have also been great for leverage using options. I've found some nice narrow-range breakouts that have allowed me to position-size 2-5x my normal lot size. Here are a couple trades I took:

C - The daily has been consolidating nicely. The Apr 3 Calls I picked up on Friday cost $0.25...dirt cheap. I took some off the table near the close.


FSLR - This carved out a nice narrow range. I initially entered @ 143.00, got stopped out and re-entered @ 143.50. I also bought the Apr 150 Calls as FSLR popped to $157 last time it broke out. I managed $4 on the Apr 120 Calls and $0.75 on the Apr 150 Calls.