RB posted a question as to which options I trade as expiration week nears. Generally, I'll switch to at-the-money options on expiration week. However, it all depends on the stop level, volatility, option premium and target exit price. Here are a few examples:
BIDU - Today it opened up above $270. Assuming you believed (in hindsight, this looked like a great set-up...where the F* was I?) that it would retest the recent lows due to the market weakness, there was a good entry point at $269 on the 5-min chart. I would have targeted the recent lows at $260, so a $9.00 move.
Stop-level - $271.00, so $2.00 risk
Volatility - highly volatile so high premiums
Option Premium - I'm guessing Sep 270 Puts would have cost about $12.00 w/ BIDU at $269.00. Sep 320 Puts would probably have cost $51.50 w/ BIDU at 269.00
Target Exit Price - I would have exited at $260.00, the recent low. Assuming you are risking $1000 on each trade, 10 Sep 270 Puts would have cost $12k and you probably would be able to sell the Puts @ $16.00, making a profit of $4k. With Sep 320 Puts, you'll have to put up $51.5k for 10 Puts but you'll make about $9k. Some would argue that percentage-wise, you're making more with the Sep 270 Puts. However, I'd say $9k is still more than $4k. With DITM options, you need to focus on the dollar movement not the percentage movement.
BUCY - I "believe" this has been oversold along with the energy/commodity sectors. When it reverses, it could easily get back to $51.00. At $43.50, that's a $7.50 move.
Stop-level - Assuming $43.50 holds, I'd say a stop @ 41.50 so $2.00 risk
Volatility - highly volatile so high premiums
Option Premium - This has gone down so far, you can't even get DITM options. In this case, I'd go with the Sep 45 Calls
Target Exit Price - Assuming you are risking $1000, 10 Sep 45 Calls would cost $2k and at $51, they should be worth about $7.50. If you get stopped out at $41.50, you'll only lose $1-1.50 on the Calls.
LM - I picked up LM today due to there exposure to FNM/FRE as well as LEH. My target is $41+.
Stop-level - I picked these up late in the day so my stop would be back at the early AM highs around 47.50.
Volatility - not as volatile as the stocks above. If I went with DITM, the Sep 50 Puts would do the trick.
Option Premium - At the current price, there is about $1.30 premium on the Sep 45's (2.60 ask) and only $0.30 on the Sep 50's (6.60 ask).
Target Exit Price - Assuming you are risking $1000, 10 Sep 45 Puts would cost $2.5k and at 41.00, they should be worth at least $4.50 giving you $2k profit. The $1000 risk should get stopped out at $47.00. On the other hand, with the Sep 50's, you'll only be able to pick up 3 Sep 50 Puts (more if you tighten your stop) to keep your loss at $1000 if you get stopped out at 47.00. At 41.00, the Sep 50 Puts should be worth at least $9.00 giving you only $700 profit.
Regardless of the stock or trade, I always try to determine my stop-level and target price which enables me to position-size and select the options accordingly.
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3 comments:
good write-up
OE:
Great post! Thank you, the examples really help and I hope they help others. I'm printing them out and putting them in my trade notebook.
Thanks. I'm glad it helps.
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