Thursday, October 16, 2008

10/16 Day/swingtrades

Today played out very similar to last Friday. Morning selloff followed by a retest of the lows and then a bounce into positive territory. Most of the stocks on my watchlist either tested last Friday's lows or retraced to the break-0ut level. I've been using SKF/SRS/SMN/EEV to gauge the market direction. All those stocks started topping out before breaking down, which coincided with the market rebound off the lows. The action today was very bullish as we carved out a higher low compared to last Friday. We may be putting in a temporary bottom which would be nice given the carnage the past few weeks. Don't get me wrong, I'm all for shorting/puts but at these levels, the odds are better for a bigger move to the upside. Let's hope for another 1000 point move tomorrow!

OIH - I don't use this set-up as often as I should but many times, stocks will tag the moving averages (usually 15 or 30-min charts) before continuing the prior day's trend. GS did the same on the 1st 30-min candle but I didn't take that trade. Instead, I faded OIH with Oct 105 Puts as it tagged the 20-SMA on the 15-min chart. I switched to the 5-min chart to manage the exit and was taken out at 87.00 for $4.50 profit...before OIH moved even lower.


MS - I took a $0.40 loss as I entered in no man's land @ $17.60 in the middle of the day with a stop @ 17.20. Looking back at the 5-min chart, I don't know why I even entered at that time and how I came up with that stop instead of $16.90 ($0.10 below the morning low)...basically overtrading.
GS - Picked up some Oct 100 Calls @ 108.30.
AAPL - Picked up some Oct 100 Calls @ 97.00.
BTW, my biggest regret of the day was GOOG. I pulled up the chart @ $315 and saw a potential double-bottom ($310). I then pulled up the options but all the premiums were ridiculous ahead of earnings. Looking back, I should have halved my position size and just bought the stock which would have been good for $30+ into the close. I wouldn't have held over earnings, though.

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