Thursday, October 2, 2008

10/2 Day/swingtrades

I think a lot of people complaining about Monday's bailout vote are regretting that they complained about it. The sheer wealth destruction this week is incredible. Middle America is going to go into psychological depression when they get the next IRA/401k statements. We may get a snapback rally if/when the government intervenes but over the long haul, our capital system is broken. Moms and Pops of America will think twice about redeploying their cash in the markets and/or discretionary spending which will lead to a long and drawn out recovery...if there is one. The "bailout"....fogettaboutit! I think it is getting priced in and over the past few days, people realize that it may fix the credit crisis but not the looming economic crisis so I want to fade any rally. Instead, we need a "surprise" event like a huge Fed rate cut, a gigantic stimulus check to ALL tax payers (yes, boohoo me but I got nothing from the gov this year) or Warren Buffet getting sworn into office!

Myself, I spent the day at the local ER. Instead of waiting for the Ags to break-down, I caught the falling knives of MOS and CF. I got stopped out for $2.00 loss on each. DITM Puts would have provided $6.00 in MOS and $10.00 in CF...serves me right for fighting the tape. I only bought a few hundred shares of each so maybe more like butter knives...but still got cut. It's crazy to see these stocks get obliterated. CF was trading at $125 on 9/22!


UNP - I thought this would break-down a little further so picked up some Oct 80 Puts but was stopped out an hour later for $0.50 loss.

SOV - I took a little more off the table @ 5.88 after it tagged 6.00 twice and couldn't break through.

3 comments:

Darwin said...

OE, well said! I thought that was you in the ER, I was the guy in the bed next to you with the heart monitor and oxygen mask!

OE Trader said...

Hahaha...hilarious! Let's try to stay out of there today. Just saw that WB news. Damn, just 1 day off. At least you're still holding some WB Calls. WFC is the new C...may have to switch over.

Darwin said...

OE, just got rid of the other half of my WB. Now we need FNM to start acting "UP"! Still like the airlines here to decline further...Picking up some GG (burned me yesterday).