Friday, September 19, 2008

9/19 Day/Swingtrades

I've been so stuck on daytrade-mode that it didn't dawn on me to take some OTM call options home. This similar scenario played out in July when the government intervened and I was quick enough to take home a bunch of call options on the banks. This time I talked myself out of it so only had AAPL calls to sell in the AM. Regarding the government intervention the past few days, I think it will temporarily halt the slide and fear in stocks but over the next few months, we still need to deal with lousy earnings and a continued weak economy. Also, here's an interesting tidbit on supposed naked short-selling:


http://www.thestreet.com/story/10438109/2/kass-blame-the-blamers.html


Anyways, this was a crazy week. I hope everyone took home some gains or at least didn't lose too much due to the craziness. I'm currently 100% cash and will see if any trends develop next week. After the monster moves the last 2 days, I'd rather wait for a pullback than chase anything at this point. Some of these stocks are higher than where they were 9 months ag0...ridiculous. Once these financial companies/holders factor in the billions of dollars lost in the past few weeks, I think the market will retest the lows. In the mean time, this theory won't prevent me from participating in any tradeable rallies. Energy/commodities may be back in favor based on Friday's late-day strength. Also, all this debt that the government will absorb is not good for the dollar...but good for oil.


As for Friday:


AAPL - I sold yesterday's remaining Sep 130 Calls @ 142 for $9.00 profit.




GS - I entered long too early and got stopped out for $1.00 loss on Sep 120 Calls. As it consolidated into a range in the afternoon, I picked up Puts as it broke below 127.00 and sold @ 122.00 for $4.00 profit on the Puts.



GOOG - I was hoping for a break-out above 150 but instead, took a $1.00 loss on the Sep 450 Calls.

4 comments:

Stewie said...

oe. whats your take on how the mrkts will trade going forward?

OE Trader said...

Hey Stewie, I think we may get at most a few more up days (maybe WM getting acquired or the latest on GS/MS) but eventually drift back down into October and possibly/probably get slammed by earnings. Near-term, money will probably move back into energy/commodities but the fundamentals in the financials have not changed. If I was holding financials stocks, I'd sell my holdings on the first signs of weakness.

BTW, I was at the mall with the family today and it was DEAD! People are losing jobs, housing is still declining and retirement savings took a beating this month. I want to see what else Paulson/Bernanke have up their sleeves if/when we retest the lows later in the year.

Darwin said...

OE, sold half my AIG Nov 2.50's friday @ avg. 2.25 (200) and the other half (200) a moment ago @ 3.15...grt profits. Agree with you on financials...bought WB Oct15p this morning. Still holding GG,XOM, & UNG. Took a bad loss on FXI. Will buy add a lot more XLU (puts)as I believe the scene is set for RISING interest rates...no way foriegners are going to buy T-bonds knowing funds will be used to bail out more incompetence...look for a bear market in T-bonds. All IMO.

OE Trader said...

D, great call on AIG. I wish I followed you in on that. Those other positions look great as well. I'm keeping my finger on the trigger...maybe a bit too much. Despite today's sell-off, emotions may pour back into the market when the bailout is finalized. If not, October will be doomed.