Wednesday, December 24, 2008
2008 HAPPY HOLIDAYS!
If the past two days are any indication of the trading set-ups available until January 5, I'd rather sleep in and spend time with family and friends. Enjoy the holidays, stay warm and get some rest for the new year!
Monday, December 22, 2008
12/22 Daytrades
SKF - I used the 113 level established early in the morning for entry and just trailed the stop using the moving averages and 5-min bars. I commented in one of the chat boards that the last hour is too volatile for the inverse ETFs and sure enough it was. I'm glad I exited a bit early.
SRS - I started the day on 5-min charts but got a false break-out early on.
Friday, December 19, 2008
12/19 Daytrades
7:30AM - Stopped out for $0.20 gain
8:00AM - Bought some SKF Dec 100 Calls @ 8.39, stop @ 107.00
9:05AM - Taking profits, sold SKF Calls @ 12.00
12:10PM - Bought SKF Dec 105 Calls @ 6.90
12:25PM - Stopped out of SKF @ 6.00
Thursday, December 18, 2008
12/12 - 12/18 Day/Swingtrades...none
I'll try to post real-time trades tomorrow if I see any decent set-ups. As with other options expiration days, I'll be using at-the-money options on the usual, volatile suspects to take advantage of the minimal premiums.
Friday, December 12, 2008
12/9-12/11 Day/swingtrades
Monday, December 8, 2008
12/8 Day/Swingtrades
C - this set up a nice narrow range as the market consolidated the opening gap. I liken this to doubling down on blackjack. The narrow range allows me to increase the position size while maintaining the same risk. I sold half as the market began to stall out and carried the other half overnight.
PCX - Coal stocks performed very well today so I picked up some Dec 7.5 Calls as it appears PCX may be coming off a double-bottom.
Sunday, December 7, 2008
12/4-12/5 Day/Swingtrades
I was hoping to get in on some short positions on Thursday ahead of the jobs report but got stopped out of SKF a couple times for $1 loss each and couldn't find a comfortable entry on the late day spike. I ended up in cash going into Friday.
On Friday, the early morning dip lost steam and it just feels like the bears are exhausted at this point. As the market decline stalled out, there were a lot of decent setups for long entries. I caught a decent move in AAPL and picked up a couple bucks in BIDU.
Next week will probably be similar to the past month with a long-bias. In this environment, technicals and fundamentals don't carry too much weight. I'll stay nimble and take profits quickly. If we get a rebound in energy, it may be good for a couple days as the sector has been obliterated. Check out the metals (X, NUE, etc.), many are starting to cross above the moving averages. On the financial front, C held has held up very well since bottoming a couple weeks ago so I'll be looking to go long again above $8.20+. JPM and WFC also look like decent long candidates.
In the long run, I think this is still just a bear rally. The fundamentals of the economy are still horrible and I haven't heard any plans that may pose a decent solution to the economic mess. If/when we turn back down, the inverse ETFs are still the way to go.
C - Thursday, I used the morning strength to unload my remaining C Dec 7.5 Calls. I made some decent coin on the first run-up to $8.40 from $6.80 but C hasn't moved much since and I didn't want too much exposure ahead of the job numbers. I'm going to use $8.20 as the next re-entry level if this rally has more momentum to it. C actually held up pretty well the past 3 days.
AAPL - I mentioned in one of the chat rooms that SKF/SRS did not look very strong when the Dow was down 200+points on Friday morning. I didn't want to chase any shorts so decided to look for low-risk long set-ups. AAPL based pretty well at the 89-90 level so I picked up Dec 60 Calls as AAPL crossed above the moving averages. I sold out aorund $92.50 as it stalled and re-entered a short while later to pick up another point. All told, a bit over $3+ on the calls.
Thursday, December 4, 2008
12/3 Day/Swingtrades
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
12/2 Day/Swingtrades
No trades for me today as I was busy with work. I'm still carrying those C Dec 7.5 Calls. Looking at the intraday charts, the inverse ETFs are still providing some great daytrading set-ups. Easy with hindsight but I've highlighted some very low-risk spots that caught my eye using narrow ranges and moving averages:
Monday, December 1, 2008
12/1 Day/Swingtrades
Sunday, November 30, 2008
Charts - Energy/Energy Services
Friday, November 28, 2008
11/28 Day/Swingtrades
C - I'm glad I went with C instead of UYG the other day. C tacked on some more nice gains. I sold some of the Nov 7.5 Calls for a double on the options.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
11/26 Day/swingtrades
C - After the pounding the past couple weeks, C showed some decent strength during the early morning weakness. I picked up shares around 6.80 and rolled the position to Dec 7.50 calls when it reached 7.20.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
11/25 Day/Swingtrades
UYG - I closed out the position once the early morning strength began to fade. It is still trading above the 5, 15 and 30-min moving averages so I'll keep it on the radar in case we continue to rally.
RIMM - The chart is an intraday close-up with 5-min bars. RIMM was weak from the open but found some solid support as it based around 40.50-41.00. I took a low-risk entry at 41.11 once it traded back above the moving averages and sold at 41.60 late in the day...pocket change.
Monday, November 24, 2008
11/24 Day/Swingtrades
In addition to the trades below, I got stopped out of OIH a couple times for $0.40 loss each time. The chart and my entry/exits are boring so I'm not posting it.
ICE - This definitely got away from me. ICE tends to rebound hard on market rallies. I thought I got a decent/early entry @ 61.19. ICE rallied to 63.00 (the opening range high, that's why I tend to use this level on early morning rallies) and fell back. I moved my $1.00 stop up too soon and was taken out for $0.19 loss. I was too busy to re-enter later on.
Friday, November 21, 2008
11/19 - 11/21 Day/swingtrades
SKF - I did a quick scan of a few charts and noticed a potential double-top on SKF and SRS. I picked up some SKF Nov 280 Puts for $2.00 with the stock at $295. I placed an order to sell at the market at the close and headed for the airport. 30 minutes later I stopped off for lunch and checked the quotes to see SKF @ $270. Unfortunately, I checked my sell order and it was cancelled by the broker (something about a market sell at the close on options on expiration day, I'll check Monday). So, I placed a limit sell @ $12.00 and it was triggered 5 minutes later for $10.00 profit. Well, I took my laptop to lunch and decided the Nov 260 were looking waaaaay too cheap @ $0.70 and with the market rallying/short covering. So, on the SKF bounce back above $270, I plowed some profits back into the Nov 260 Puts @ $0.70. I dumped those 10 minutes later for another $10.00 profit. It would have been nice to hold everything right into the close but I haven't been able to keep up with the intraday market action so my trading emotions have been out-of-sync for a couple weeks.
Sunday, November 16, 2008
11/8 - 11/18 Day/swingtrades
Thursday, November 6, 2008
11/4 - 11/7 Day/swingtrades
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081107/ap_on_bi_ge/eu_germany_earns_porsche
Another interesting story is Yahoo. This is why company founders should not be running their own companies. Similar to many of my bad trades, Jerry Yang got too emotional with his position (YHOO holdings). Microsoft offered $33 and Jerry held out for $37 with no stop in place....now trading @ $12.20:
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/122751/Jerry-Yang
As for my trading, I had too many meetings to attend and deliverables to crank out at work this week so I kept the trading extremely light. I also let a $3+ profit on the LDK position fade on me so that was a good sign that my head was not in the game.
LDK - I picked up Nov 15 Calls late Monday for a "Stewie" ONH hold/setup. I got the gap open on Tuesday that I was looking for and actually pulled the quote up while at work and saw LDK print 26.50. I should have raised the stop at that point but left it at break-even which was taken out the next day.
BUCY - I had picked up the Nov 30 Calls a few weeks ago. The stock tanked down to below $20 so I was very happy to see it climb back up to $28+. I used this opportunity to exit the position for $0.50 loss. Last week, these calls were printing $0.30 which was a $2.00 paper loss at the time.
UYG - I had higher hopes for this one as it actually traded up to 11.00 on Tuesday. I closed the position @ 10.00 for $0.50 profit on calls and shares.
I'm hoping for a lighter week so I can get in some decent trades in the mornings.
Monday, November 3, 2008
11/3 Day/swingtrade
LVS - I used the gap open to unload the Nov 12.5 Calls from last week. There was still about $1.50 time premium on the calls so I figured I'd wait for a pullback and pick up the shares to get the 1:1 movement. I sold around 16.00 and netted $3.50 on the calls.
LDK - I picked up some Nov 15 Calls late in the day as volume and price picked up. Solar was strong today and overall, the sector has been beaten up so maybe we LDK can put in a couple more decent days.
10/29 - 10/31 Day/swingtrades
LVS - Casinos have rallied pretty well the past few days. I picked up some Nov 12.5 Call w/ stock at $9.50 on Wednesday. Friday, I daytraded shares as the opening range high (12.00) was taken out. I sold the shares @ 14.50 but am still holding the Calls.
UYG - The financials aren't rebounding as quickly as the rest of the sectors, especially with GS stuck in a rut. However, if we've seen a temporary bottom, the think there will be $2-3 upside from here. I picked up some Nov 8 Calls and shares w/ stock around $9.40 - 9.60.
Friday, October 31, 2008
MaysTrade
http://maystrade.blogspot.com/
During the trading day, Billy is usually over at Wallstreak or Dissect.org banking profits.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
10/28 Day/swingtrades
BTW, I was speaking to my boss today about her retirement portfolio which is in the shits. I know most of you readers are "traders" but just in case you have a nest egg somewhere that has taken a blow, now is NOT the time to diversify. This may just be a bear rally and we may even go back down(doubtful) tomorrow. However, with this volatility, I think you're better off taking your portfolio and stalking a stock or two that can get you 20-50% on a short-covering rally like today (i.e., CLF, X, CF, SSO). For instance, FNM picked up 16% today and was at $1.90 at the beginning of October. The government has already committed to supporting FNM/FRE so what is the downside. If my nest egg was down 50% , I'd have a higher chance of seeing FNM go to $1.20 to pick up the 50% than wait on a diversied portofolio that may never recover to its value 1 month ago. Anyways, this is NOT a recommendation...just a different perspective for the longer-term trader/investor. Now is not the time to be loyal to those schmucks that have been taking regular fees from your accounts with no consequences when they lose your money. It kills me to see my friends/co-workers entrust their retirement money to money managers that have no experience trading and have only ridden the coat-tails of the recent bull market.
Monday, October 27, 2008
Fear & Greed Trader
http://fearandgreedtrader.blogspot.com/
He's dialed-in, keeps it simple and banks six-figures on a daily basis!
10/27 Day/swingtrades
OIH - I picked up some Nov 40 Calls as it broke out of the triangle. I got stopped out @ 84.50 for 2.50 profit on calls. That would have been a great time to go short but I was too busy with a conference call.
POT - I went with Nov 30 Calls as it broke out of the base. The action was pretty weak as I got stopped out for $0.20 gain. Again, that would have been a perfect time to flip to the short side.
Friday, October 24, 2008
10/21 - 10/23 Day/swingtrades
AAPL - I had time for one trade before heading out of the hotel yesterday morning. AAPL had a lot of selling pressure going into earnings on Tuesday. I just knew the afterhours gap could not hold in the AM as there would be too much profit-taking. Using the 1-min chart, I waited for AAPL to consolidate and cross below the moving averages. I shorted the stock for $2.80 profit.
Monday, October 20, 2008
10/20 Day/swingtrades
OIH - I entered Oct 50 Calls as the volume started picking up midday.
NOV - "The Fly" has been all over this one the past few weeks so I kept it on the radar. I picked up shares as the premium on the calls were a bit too high.
Friday, October 17, 2008
10/17 Day/swingtrades
GS - In addition to yesterday's Oct 100's, I picked up some 115's for only $1.00 as GS broke out of the 112 area. I sold the Oct 100's @ 118.00 for $9.00 profit and the Oct 115's for $2.50 profit as GS formed an intraday double-top @ 118.50.
GOOG - I picked up some Oct 380's around 376.00 for $2.80 as it broke out of the 370.00 narrow range. The premiums were still a bit high early in the day and GOOG had trouble breaking the 20-SMA on the daily at 385+(this level also coincided with the 20-SMA on the daily chart...see below) so I sold the calls @ $6.00 for $3.20 profit.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
10/16 Day/swingtrades
OIH - I don't use this set-up as often as I should but many times, stocks will tag the moving averages (usually 15 or 30-min charts) before continuing the prior day's trend. GS did the same on the 1st 30-min candle but I didn't take that trade. Instead, I faded OIH with Oct 105 Puts as it tagged the 20-SMA on the 15-min chart. I switched to the 5-min chart to manage the exit and was taken out at 87.00 for $4.50 profit...before OIH moved even lower.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
10/15 Day/swingtrades...none
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
10/14 Day/swingtrades
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122394318763531045.html
"...Mr. Cohen, for instance, sold near half of his stock holdings last week, closing out the positions of roughly 50 managers who work for him because he felt they "weren't seeing the ball," says a person familiar with the situation. Mr. Cohen's decision was made at the end of September and comes from an attempt to stem this year's losses. He now plans to keep that money on the market sidelines for the rest of the year, though he is still trading a small portfolio, along with a few other managers. The managers whose portfolios were shut are feeding Mr. Cohen short-term trading ideas, the person says."
This morning's gap open was the perfect selling opportunity after the monster run-up yesterday. I was so busy closing out long positions in the first 30-40 minutes that I missed some opportunities to go short. I'm back to cash and will see how the market reacts to earnings.
GS - 2 weeks ago, I picked up a few Oct 130 Calls. I had assumed these would expire worthless. Instead, I used this morning's strength to close out the calls for only $0.50 (vs. 3.50 yesterday) loss.
MS - This was the biggest overnight winner for me due to my position size. I picked up $3.50 on the Oct 19 Calls. The Calls were only trading @ 1.15 when I bought them yesterday. The chart is very similar to that of UYG. For some reason, my charting software won't send me the chart for MS.
UYG - I closed this position at the open for $2.00 profit on the Oct 8 Calls.
AAPL - This was weak all day. I started this position with Oct 95 Calls on Friday when AAPL was back @ $95+ so I let it slip a couple dollars before finally exiting yesterday's Oct 110 Calls @ $112+ for $2.50 profit. I tried going short with Oct 110 Puts late in the day but got stopped out for $1.00 loss.
Monday, October 13, 2008
10/13 Day/swingtrades
Now that was a f'n rally!!! I wish I were posting some monster gains today but my excuse...insomnia. The winds were howling last night and I found myself looking at charts and reading news since 3:30AM PST. By the time the market opened, I was a zombie. I missed the first bounce off the moving averages but caught some of the late day craziness. BIDU and GOOG were definitely the options expiration trades of the day. Any ATM/OTM options in the morning would have paid off handsomely.
AAPL - I picked up about $8.00 on those Oct 95 calls purchase on Friday. I rolled the profits into Oct 110 Calls in case we get some weakness tomorrow.
UYG - Picked up Oct 8 Calls @ 10.02
MS - Picked up Oct 19 Calls @ 17.87
GS - This was the worse non-trade all day since I had it down on the gameplan. I was staring at this @ 100, 101, 102...it just never clicked to pick up the Oct 105 Calls which were trading $3+ at the time.